Wins, Losses, and NFL Head Coaches: Who Can Catch Don Shula

Of the nearly 500 men in the history of the NFL who have served as a head coach, Don Shula won the most - 328 in 33 years with the Baltimore Colts and Miami Dolphins. To get there, he had to pass legends like Paul Brown (213), Curly Lambeau (226), and George Halas (318), and outlast contemporary Tom Landry (250). To put Shula's mark into perspective, only Halas and Landry have come within even 100 wins of the record.

After the Patriots beat the Dolphins this afternoon for Bill Belichick's 162nd career victory, I started thinking about which head coaches, if any, might have a chance of approaching, or breaking, Shula's record (that's, a lot, of commas). Here's who I came up with, in some sort of order:

Honorable Mention: Bill Cowher, 53, 149-90-1 (fifteen seasons)

Cowher hasn't coached since 2006, but he's still relatively young and has more wins than both Jeff Fisher and Andy Reid, and about a season's worth less than Belichick. His name is constantly mentioned whenever coaching jobs open up, but he has the benefit of picking and choosing where, if anywhere, he ends up. That's actually a negative as well: unlike some other coaches, he doesn't come off as a guy that really NEEDS to coach again.

Josh McDaniels, 34, 11-17 (two seasons)

It probably seems silly right now, considering he was just fired by the Denver Broncos in the middle of his second season, but here's the thing: McDaniels is young (he'll turn 35 in April) and smart. Let's say he takes a couple years to get back to basics, work as a coordinator, and prepare for his next opportunity as the head guy (i.e. the Bill Belichick plan). That puts him in position to be successful by his late thirties and gives him time to win some damn ballgames. Is this a whole lot of conjecture? Sure. Is there a whole lot of ground to cover before he even becomes a serious candidate? Of course. But his youth makes him, at the very least, a possibility.

Eric Mangini, 40, 33-47 (five seasons)

Again, youth. Mangini turns forty in eight days and has 33 wins on his NFL resume. His chances depend on what happens in Cleveland next season (if he gets a next season in Cleveland). If he gets fired, either this offseason or next, it closes his window in a hurry.

Jeff Fisher, 52, 142-120 (seventeen seasons)

Fisher has the longest current head coaching tenure in the NFL - and he's still 186 wins short of Shula, with a team that has missed the playoffs in five of the last seven seasons. Say he survives this recent stretch, stays in Tennessee, and averages ten wins a year for the next ten years. That puts him in Landry territory, which ain't too shabby.

Raheem Morris, 34, 13-19 (two seasons)

First year: 3-13. Second year: 10-6. Even if this year was a bit fluky, he goes into next season with an excellent young quarterback, strength at the other skill positions (LeGarrette Blount, Kellen Winslow, Mike Williams), and youth on his side.

Andy Reid, 52, 118-74 (twelve seasons)

Reid is less than a month younger than Fisher and has 24 fewer wins to his credit, and I think the same reasoning applies: continued success for the next ten years puts him in the company of some all-time greats. Unlike Fisher, however, I think he has a pretty good chance of getting into that rarefied air.

Mike Tomlin, 38, 43-21 (four seasons)

In four full seasons, Tomlin's Steelers have never won fewer than nine games, made three playoffs appearances, and won a Super Bowl. As such, he hasn't had to worry about being on the hot seat, giving him the chance to build some up some cred. It's easier to have a bad season when you've got five or six successful ones in front of it. Also worth noting: he works for an organization noted for its loyalty to head coaches.

Bill Belichick, 58, 162-94 (sixteen seasons)

It may seem crazy given his age, but here's the deal: Belichick has averaged ten wins a season for his career. Say that holds steady for the next fifteen years - he'll be in his early seventies, which is old, but not unheard of for an NFL coach (Marv Levy was 72 his last season with Buffalo), especially one who lives and breathes the game as much as Belichick. An additional 150 wins puts him around 310 for his career - past Brown, past Lambeau, past Landry, and within a season or two of Halas and Shula.

Will any of this come true? I haven't the slightest clue. But hey, it'll give me one more reason to pay attention to the NFL for the next thirty or so years.