Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Trying To Rate My Very Own Preseason Predictions

After Vegas Watch reviewed preseason picks by a number of "experts" and systems last week, I felt compelled to do the same with my own predictions. I don't think I ever posted them and the won-lost records aren't even (1,139-1,121, if I'm remembering correctly), but the awfulness is all real.

I didn't go all crazy with the stats like VW, for a very good reason: he's smarter than me. The plusses and minuses below are simply how far off I was from each team's actual wins and losses. Sometimes, the numbers were small (only two off on Philadelphia and Milwaukee, three on Boston, Texas, and Arizona), sometimes, the numbers were big (a Steve Phillips-esque 30 on the Padres and 26 on the Tigers - somebody drank the Kool-Aid).


AL East
Boston Red Sox 98-64 95-67 -3
New York Yankees 94-68 89-73 -5
Tampa Bay Rays 81-81 97-65 +16
Toronto Blue Jays 75-87 86-76 +11
Baltimore Orioles 62-100 68-93 +6
+23

AL Central
Detroit Tigers 100-62 74-88 -26
Cleveland Indians 96-66 81-81 -15
Minnesota Twins 82-80 88-74 +6
Chicago White Sox 76-86 88-74 +12
Kansas City Royals 65-97 75-87 +10
-13

AL West
Los Angeles Angels 91-71 100-62 +9
Texas Rangers 82-80 79-83 -3
Seattle Mariners 72-90 61-101 -11
Oakland Athletics 64-98 75-86 +11
+6

NL East
New York Mets 100-62 89-73 -11
Philadelphia Phillies 94-68 92-70 -2
Atlanta Braves 85-77 72-90 -13
Washington Nationals 68-94 59-102 -9
Florida Marlins 67-95 84-77 +17
-18

NL Central
Chicago Cubs 89-73 97-64 +8
Milwaukee Brewers 88-74 90-72 +2
Cincinnati Reds 80-82 74-88 -6
St. Louis Cardinals 78-84 86-76 +8
Houston Astros 77-85 86-75 +9
Pittsburgh Pirates 77-85 67-95 -10
+11

NL West
San Diego Padres 93-69 63-99 -30
Colorado Rockies 90-72 74-88 -16
Arizona Diamondbacks 85-77 82-80 -3
Los Angeles Dodgers 72-90 84-78 +12
San Francisco Giants 58-104 72-90 +14
-23
-14 overall

1 Comment:

Bad Move, Tampa Bay

The Tampa Bay Rays announced today that attorney John Higgins, the first employee hired by the team back in 1995, will throw out the first pitch before the opener of the ALDS on Thursday afternoon. Putting aside for a moment Lozo's pick, which was easily the most inspired and logical choice, wouldn't we all have been happier if it was THIS John Higgins?

1 Comment:

Reverse Survivor: Better Late Than Never

Not a lot to say this week - as previously noted, I was otherwise occupied for most of the weekend and had no time to watch any college football (except for bits and pieces of UNH-Dartmouth). There was a lot of winnowing out, however, with five teams earning their first overall wins and five others beating an FBS foe for the first time.

Two things that do bear mentioning: one, it was a very big week for perennial contender Florida International, which removed itself from contention with a convincing 35-16 win over Toledo, and two, Virginia remained in the mix following a 31-3 loss to - brace yourselves - Duke. It's always nice to see a former Reverse Survivor winner make good.

Oh, and finally, Idaho is looking good for this thing. They are not good. Amazingly, it could come down to the season finale against Hawaii. Ten months ago, who would have imagined that?

Winless Teams
1. Washington (Pac-10, 0-4) – lost to Stanford, 35-28 - October 4 @ Arizona
2. North Texas (Sun Belt, 0-4) – lost to Rice, 77-20 - October 4 vs. Florida International
3. Army (Independents, 0-4) – lost to Texas A&M, 21-17 - October 4 @ Tulane

Eligible One-Win Teams

1. Virginia (ACC Coastal, 1-3) – lost to Duke, 31-3
2. Syracuse (Big East, 1-4) – lost to Pittsburgh, 34-24
3. UCF (CUSA East, 1-3) – lost to UTEP, 58-13
4. Southern Methodist (CUSA West, 1-4) – lost to Tulane, 34-27
5. UAB (CUSA East, 1-4) – lost to South Carolina, 26-13
6. Kent State (MAC East, 1-4) – lost to Ball State, 41-20
7. Miami (OH) (MAC East, 1-3) – off
8. Eastern Michigan (MAC West, 1-4) – lost to Northern Illinois, 37-0
9. Washington State (Pac-10, 1-4) – lost to Oregon, 63-14
10. Mississippi State (SEC West, 1-4) – lost to LSU (5), 34-24
11. Louisiana-Monroe (Sun Belt, 1-3) – off
12. Hawaii (Western Athletic, 1-3) – lost to San Jose State, 20-17
13. Idaho (Western Athletic, 1-4) – lost to San Diego State, 45-17
14. Western Kentucky (Independents, 2-3) – lost to Kentucky, 41-3

15. Rutgers (Big East, 1-3) – beat Morgan State, 38-0
16. Ohio (MAC East, 1-4) – beat Virginia Military Institute, 51-31

Dropped Out
UTEP (CUSA West, 1-3) – beat UCF, 58-13
San Diego State (Mountain West, 1-3) – beat Idaho, 45-17
Florida International (Sun Belt, 1-3) – beat Toledo, 35-16
West Virginia (Big East, 2-2) – beat Marshall, 27-3
Memphis (CUSA East, 2-3) – beat Arkansas State, 29-17
Houston (CUSA West, 2-3) – beat East Carolina (23), 41-24
Northern Illinois (MAC West, 2-2) – beat Northern Illinois, 37-0
Nevada (Western Athletic, 2-1) – beat UNLV, 49-27

0 Comments:

My Favorite Movie Quotes, Volume 13

Nanny McPhee (2005)

Nanny McPhee: When you need me but do not want me, then I must stay. When you want me but no longer need me, then I have to go.

0 Comments:

Monday, September 29, 2008

Kind Of A Lot Happened This Weekend

My wife and I made a big change this weekend, moving from the apartment in which we began our life as a married couple into a townhouse with a fireplace, a basement, and our very own washer and dryer. Sure, we're still renting, but this place actually feels like a home. As I said to Vicki earlier, "I can see us living here for three to five years while we save money, get ourselves out of debt, and figure out what to do with our lives." This means, of course, that I will still be writing this blog from the exact same spot in 2028. Count on it. Five-year plans are for losers.

Because we started the moving process at 8 AM on Saturday, Vicki made arrangements for our cable and internet to be shut off on Friday evening. Come Saturday morning, the cable was still there (they accidentally shut it off earlier in the week, so we think they gave us extra time rather than incur further wrath from my lovely bride); the internet went, as scheduled, on Friday, just as I was sending an email to the league manager in my fantasy football league regarding one of our players. Great timing.

So before getting myself hooked up earlier today, I hadn't been online for more than a few minutes since Friday night. While sifting through the 600+ items in my Google Reader, I found a few things that made me want to comment; rather than separate them into separate posts, however, I'm just gonna do one post, complete with bullet points.

  • Matt Bryant - I actually saw this late in the week, then my brother texted me last night to bring it to my attention again. My thoughts are simple enough: as a father, I know the fear that creeps up every night while putting an infant to bed. That "what if?" is always in the back of your mind. But I absolutely cannot fathom the anguish that occurs when that same infant doesn't wake up the next morning. (Anguish isn't even a good enough word there. I don't know if there is a good enough word.) I want to believe that there is a God and that he loves us and all that happy stuff, but this is one of those inconsistencies that just fucking gets me. I mean, why? Three months old...why?

    It sounds like Bryant did the right thing on Sunday, going out and doing his job in memory of the son that he barely knew. It sounds like that was the best option for him. I hope now that he and his wife are able to start the healing process.

  • Ungrateful Pats Fans - One of the Roundups at The Big Lead linked an article by CBS Sports columnist Mike Freeman that talked about the Patriots fans who booed the team during last weekend's 38-13 loss to Miami. Included in the article was the following line:
    How about this? We'll transfer the Patriots to Detroit and the Lions to Massachusetts. Patriots fans can have Matt Millen, now that he's available, and the Motor City will take Bill Belichick.

    See how much you'd boo then.
    What Freeman fails to realize is that for much of the late 1980s and early 1990s, the New England Patriots WERE the Detroit Lions. They were terrible - if memory serves, at one point they went 1-15, 6-10, and 2-14 in three consecutive seasons. They even had their very own Millen: Hugh, a quarterback out of Washington who led the team to a 5-15 record in two seasons at the helm.

    Now, you could argue that Patriots fans have forgotten those days and have been spoiled by more than a decade of solid-to-great teams. That's probably true. Maybe Freeman was trying to illustrate that irony by drawing that particular comparison. Maybe, but I'm not so sure.

  • Homeruns - I looked at the major league homerun leaders on Friday night, noticed that there probably wouldn't be a forty-homerun hitter in the American League, and went to Baseball-Reference to figure out the last time that had happened in each league. The answer was kinda cool: the last player to lead the Junior Circuit in homeruns with less than forty was Fred McGriff, who christened Skydome with 36 in 1989, and the last player to lead the Senior Circuit in homeruns with less than forty was Fred McGriff, who hit 35 for San Diego in 1992. That was a fun fact until Cabrera had to go and ruin it this year.

    Here's something else interesting, though: Jim Rice led the American League with 39 homeruns in 1977. In the 31 seasons since, only five times has the league leader finished with less than forty (compared to eight times in the National League): 1981 (Tony Armas, Dwight Evans, Bobby Grich, and Eddie Murray all finished with 22 in a strike-shortened year), 1982 (Reggie Jackson and Gorman Thomas both had 39), 1983 (Rice had 39), 1989 (McGriff's 36) and 2008 (Miguel Cabrera had 37). It should be fun to see if Cabrera's 2008 season is the first of a multi-year stretch like 1981-83, or an anomaly like 1989.

    Oh, one more thing that I liked about this article about the drop in homeruns this season, which mentioned the McGriff fact above and connected the decrease to steroid testing: a bunch of players gave their opinions, from Torii Hunter's idea that teams are shifting back to a smallball-type mentality to Mark Teixeira's "squishy balls" theory, but my favorite excuse came from Cabrera, who said,
    "I think it's the bigger stadiums," Cabrera said.
    Not one new ballpark, stadium, arena, or ballfield has opened in the American League since the year 2000, when Comerica Park arrived on the scene. I'm just spitballin' here, but if this were a true factor, wouldn't these massive, cathedralesque venues have impacted homerun production before now? Possibly? Look at it this way: Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz have each hit fifty homeruns in a season since 2000 (Rodriguez has done it three times - it blows my mind to look at his stats and realize that. Why, exactly, do people complain about him as a ballplayer? Will that question ever be answered to anyone's satisfaction?), and they did it in the exact same ballparks as Cabrera hit his 37.

  • Fantasy Football - My brother and I are partners in the aforementioned fantasy football league, so I called him when the email didn't go through and left a voicemail regarding the changes. He returned the call on Sunday and we were on the phone when the story broke that Carson Palmer would not play against the Browns. Carson Palmer, of course, is our primary quarterback. We made the move to Jason Campbell, which turned out well despite his having to play against a (theoretically) good Cowboys defense, and all should have been right with the world.

    Except...

    Halfway through our conversation, I remembered that Palmer is also my quarterback in the Channel Four News Team League. I had tinkered with the lineups earlier in the week, but couldn't remember what my final decision had been at the quarterback slot - Palmer or Brett Favre (Jon Kitna is my third quarterback, but he had a bye this week. Besides, he will never play for one of my fantasy teams again, ever. The only reason I have him on my roster this year is as punishment for the shitstorm he delivered us last season). After almost asking Tim to go in and check it out for me, as I still had no internet, I decided against it. Let the chips fall where they may.

    You already know where "where they may" was, don't you?

    Palmer doesn't play. Favre throws for 289 yards and six touchdowns. I lose to Signal to Noise by 25 points. Might Brett's 34.56 fantasy points have been important, perhaps? Perhaps. There's a reason I'm in ninth place out of ten teams.
That's all for the newsy stuff I saw. I've got two or three more posts planned for this week - Reverse Survivor, thoughts on leaving a home behind for the first time, a review of one of the strangest live events I have ever attended - but I'm also starting a new job tomorrow, so some of that may not happen. Or all of that may not happen. I have no idea.

4 Comments:

Friday, September 26, 2008

Reverse Survivor: We Interrupt Our Regularly Scheduled Programming

A quick FYI to all those looking for this week's Reverse Survivor update: I am moving this weekend and will not have internet access until Tuesday, which means this week's post probably will not appear in it's usual Sunday/early Monday time slot. Yeah, I'm sad about it too.

0 Comments:

Monday, September 22, 2008

Reverse Survivor: Two Perennial Contenders, Two Opposite Directions

Every year, Reverse Survivor features a couple heartbreakers, games where a team fights and claws and comes up juuuuuust short of victory. Rutgers and UTEP fell into that category this week, falling by a combined three points to Navy and New Mexico State. They are two of eight winless teams remaining in FBS, three of which (San Diego State, Washington, North Texas) were idle this week. The program with the most promise might just be Florida International; the Golden Panthers rallied from a 17-0 deficit to put a scare into twelfth-ranked South Florida before losing 17-9 on Saturday.

1. Rutgers (Big East, 0-3) – lost to Navy, 23-21
2. UTEP (CUSA West, 0-3) – lost to New Mexico State, 34-33
3. Ohio (MAC East, 0-4) – lost to Northwestern, 16-8
4. San Diego State (Mountain West, 0-3)
5. Washington (Pac-10, 0-3)
6. Florida International (Sun Belt, 0-3) – lost to South Florida (12), 17-9
7. North Texas (Sun Belt, 0-3)
8. Army (Independents, 0-3) – lost to Akron, 22-3

Eighteen teams remain eligible despite having one win: thirteen holdovers from last week and five newcomers that beat up on FCS opponents in Week 4 (predictably, those teams are numbers 14 through 18 on the list below).

Pay careful attention to #13 Idaho, one of the teams in last week's marquee matchup. The Vandals were shredded by previously winless Utah State, 42-17, thanks to a 21-point fourth quarter for the Aggies. If Idaho can lose that badly to a school with no wins, well, a repeat performance just might be in the cards for this season.

1. Virginia (ACC Coastal, 1-2) - Idle
2. West Virginia (Big East, 1-2) – lost to Colorado, 17-14 (OT)
3. UCF (CUSA East, 1-2) – lost to Boston College, 34-7
4. Houston (CUSA West, 1-3) – lost to Colorado State, 28-25
5. Southern Methodist (CUSA West, 1-2) – lost to TCU, 48-7
6. Kent State (MAC East, 1-3) – lost to Louisiana-Lafayette, 44-27
7. Miami (OH) (MAC East, 1-3) – lost to Cincinnati, 45-20
8. Eastern Michigan (MAC West, 1-3) – lost to Maryland, 51-24
9. Mississippi State (SEC West, 1-3) – lost to Georgia Tech, 38-17
10. Louisiana-Monroe (Sun Belt, 1-3) – lost to Tulane, 24-10
11. Nevada (Western Athletic, 1-1) - Idle
12. Hawaii (Western Athletic, 1-2) - Idle
13. Idaho (Western Athletic, 1-3) – lost to Utah State, 42-17
14. UAB (CUSA East, 1-3) – beat Alabama State, 45-10
15. Syracuse (Big East, 1-3) – beat Northeastern, 30-21
16. Northern Illinois (MAC West, 1-2) – beat Indiana State, 48-3
17. Washington State (Pac-10, 1-3) – beat Portland State, 48-9
18. Memphis (CUSA East, 1-3) – beat Nicholls State, 31-10

And, strange but true, we have a Reverse Survivor contestant with two wins. I didn't take the time to look this up, but it memory serves, Western Kentucky is still a transitional program, maybe two years removed from FCS. I believe a plan is in place to move them into the Sun Belt Conference next season; the final five games this season are against SBC schools. Because of this, I believe, they have two FCS schools on their schedule: Eastern Kentucky and Murray State. They've won both those games, but still lack a win over an FBS opponent; as such, they are still very much involved in this competition.

19. Western Kentucky (Independents, 2-2)

Key Matchups

Morgan State (2-1) @ Rutgers (0-3)
UCF (1-2) @ UTEP (0-3)
Virginia Military (2-1) @ Ohio (0-4)
Stanford (2-2) @ Washington (0-3)
Florida Internaiional (0-3) @ Toledo (1-2)
North Texas (0-3) @ Rice (2-2)
Army (0-3) @ Texas A&M (1-2)
Northern Illinois (1-2) @ Eastern Michigan (1-3)

Marquee Matchup

Idaho (1-3) @ San Diego State (0-3)

0 Comments:

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Nobody Wants To Hear My Music

One of the kids I work with loves music, but doesn't like it when other people sing, especially if they aren't good at it. I'm not good at it.

Whenever we're in the car, I'll put on a CD and try to get away with singing along to a song or two. This usually lasts about ten seconds. Last night, however, I got all the way through "Hey There, Delilah" and into another tune without comment from the peanut gallery.

I was driving along, marveling at this strange turn of events, when I looked at the car in front of us, saw its personalized license plate, and realized that God really DOES have a sense of humor.

The license plate read "SHUSH".

2 Comments:

Monday, September 15, 2008

I Feel Like Buddy The Elf: "I KNOW HIM!"

One day late in my senior year of high school, a few guys were sitting around shooting the breeze when I looked over at Andy Hirko, the quarterback of the football team and catcher on the baseball team, and said fawningly, "Andy, you're my hero!" (If you're having trouble imagining the tone of my voice, just pretend I was batting my eyelashes and grinning stupidly while saying it. Hero worship with a hint of sarcasm.)

I don't know why I said it. It was ten years ago. I imagine I was just playing around with a guy noted for his perpetual good humor. It was surprising, then, when Andy turned on me, offended, and said, "Am I, Brian? Am I really?" It was one of the few times in four years that I can recall seeing him genuinely upset about anything.

At the time, I think my response was the sheepish smile of someone too naive to realize the burden that high expectations can place on a high school kid. Andy was supposed to be a lot of things, supposed to be a hero to many, and I imagine that weighed on him more than he liked to let on. I've thought about that exchange more than once, however, and this is what my response should have been:

"Well, yeah. Why shouldn't you be my hero - or one of them, at least? You work harder than just about anybody else. You were the starting cacher for the varsity team as a freshman, the second-best guy in the state at that position, yet you're the one guy out there doing extra work after every single practice, trying to make yourself better. That's the sort of attitude that makes schmucks like me want to do the same thing.

But that's only part of it. It's also the way you handle disappointment. You were supposed to be the Golden Boy Quarterback who restored Portsmouth football to glory. A lot of guys wouldn't be able to handle not meeting that expectation. They'd fall apart. You just work harder and do everything you can to show support to the guy who wants to take your starting job away. My tone just now might've been disrespectful, and I'm sorry for that, but the truth is that I honestly respect the hell out of you, man."

If only I had had a script writer in high school. I would have been way more quotable (and probably way more fake-sounding).

I mention this now because the Andy who briefly lashed out at me that day was a far different person than the one I knew through four years of high school - the real Andy, if you will. That Andy did a lot of weird stuff, like wearing shorts to school in the middle of winter, for no other reason than he was totally comfortable with himself, fully at ease with who he was. I always admired that.

There's another thing the real Andy does, apparently, and that is dance. Badly. Personally, I wouldn't have the guts to show off my horrible dance moves (and they are truly horrible) to my closest family and friends in the privacy of my own home; Andy videotaped his "dinosaur dance" and sent it in for a contest on Live with Regis and Kelly. And wouldn't you know it, being carefree paid off: last week, his video was featured on the show and he won $10,000. All he had to do was show off some killer dance moves and answer a trivia question. The video of him "dancing" is below:



I hope you stuck around until the very end, because as ridiculous as the whole thing was, the last two seconds was the best part. Like, you heard the baby yammering the whole time, but you never expected to actually SEE the baby.

Ten semifinalists will be selected in the next few weeks. They will then be voted on at the Live with Regis and Kelly web site, with the top five receiving the chance to be on the show and win $50,000. I'm not sure exactly where or how to vote - it might not be possible until October 1 - but here is the link to the Regis and Kelly home page. When voting opens, make sure to throw your support Andy's way, early and often.

2 Comments:

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Reverse Survivor: Break Up The Blue Devils!

I found a couple of mistakes while writing this post (I had Kent State as an FCS team and left Navy out entirely) and it's possible that there are more. Please email onemoredyingquail@gmail.com or leave a comment below with any corrections.

For the second season in a row, Duke's football team stepped up to the Reverse Survivor challenge and took itself out of the running before September was half over. Last year they got a late defensive stop to beat Northwestern; this year, after beating FCS team James Madison and losing a close game to the Wildcats, the Blue Devils hung 41 points on the scoreboard against Navy.

Seventeen teams remain winless through the third weekend of the season, including perennial contender Florida International (2006 co-champion; 2007 "Last Team With A Win" award). Only four of those teams play in BCS conferences: Rutgers (Big East), Syracuse (Big East), Washington (Pac-10) and Washington State (Pac-10). I'm particularly fascinated by Rutgers, which appeared to turn a corner last season but has suffered two bad losses at home to start 2008, and Washington, off to an 0-3 start under coach Ty Willingham. The man who replaced Willingham at Notre Dame, Charlie Weis, led the Irish to an awful start last season; it's interesting to see Willingham's Huskies entering the Reverse Survivor picture this year.

1. Rutgers (Big East, 0-2)
2. UAB (CUSA East, 0-3)
3. Ohio (MAC East, 0-3)
4. Syracuse (Big East, 0-3)
5. Tulane (CUSA West, 0-2)
6. Washington State (Pac-10, 0-3)
7. Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt, 0-2)
8. Florida International (Sun Belt, 0-2)
9. Army (Independents, 0-2)
10. Memphis (CUSA East, 0-3)
11. UTEP (CUSA West, 0-2)
12. Northern Illinois (MAC West, 0-2)
13. San Diego State (Mountain West, 0-3)
14. Washington (Pac-10, 0-3)
15. North Texas (Sun Belt, 0-3)
16. New Mexico State (Western Athletic, 0-1)
17. Utah State (Western Athletic, 0-3)

Last season, no FBS team went winless, so I had to create a tiebreaker: wins against FBS competition. The only team that did not have a win against an FBS team was Idaho, which recorded its only victory against an FCS school. The Vandals are back in the running on that count this year, knocking off Idaho State on September 6, but could have trouble defending their 2007 title: the WAC looks wack, with five teams on this list. Much like the Sun Belt last year, if a team can't win a game in this conference, they truly deserve the Reverse Survivor National Championship.

Eligible One-Win Teams
1. Kent State (MAC East, 1-2)
2. Miami (OH) (MAC East, 1-2)
3. Louisiana-Monroe (Sun Belt, 1-2)
4. North Carolina State (ACC Atlantic, 1-2)
5. Miami (FL) (ACC Coastal,1-1)
6. Cincinnati (Big East, 1-1)
7. Louisville (Big East, 1-1)
8. West Virginia (Big East, 1-1)
9. Pittsburgh (Big East, 1-1)
10. Purdue (Big Ten, 1-1)
11. Marshall (CUSA East, 1-1)
12. UCF (CUSA East, 1-1)
13. Houston (CUSA West, 1-2)
14. Eastern Michigan (MAC West, 1-2)
15. Colorado State (Mountain West, 1-1)
16. Nevada (Western Athletic, 1-1)
17. Hawaii (Western Athletic, 1-2)
18. Idaho (Western Athletic, 1-2)
19. Virginia (ACC Coastal, 1-2)
20. Southern Methodist (CUSA West, 1-2)
21. Mississippi State (SEC West, 1-2)
22. Western Kentucky (Independents, 1-2)
23. Navy (Independents, 1-2)

Important Reverse Survivor Games: Week 4 (FCS schools in italics)

Indiana State (0-2)
@ Northern Illinois (0-2), 3:30 PM: Even if they beat the Sycamores, Northern Illinois remains in the running - Indiana State is an FCS school.

Lousiana-Monroe (1-2) @ Tulane (0-2), 3:00 PM

Northeastern (0-2) @ Syracuse (0-3), 3:30 PM

Houston (1-2) @ Colorado State (1-1), 3:30 PM

Rutgers (0-2) @ Navy (1-2), 3:30 PM

Alabama State (0-2) @ UAB (0-3), 4:00 PM

Portland State (1-1) @ Washington State (0-3), 7:00 PM

Murray State (1-2) @ Western Kentucky (1-2), 7:00 PM

Kent State (1-2) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (0-2), 7:00 PM

Nicholls State (0-0) @ Memphis (0-3), 8:00 PM

New Mexico State (0-1) @ UTEP (0-2), 9:05 PM

Marquee Matchup
Idaho (1-2) @ Utah State (0-3), 8:00 PM: If Reverse Survivor was the BCS, this game would be bigger than USC-Ohio State. Huge national title implications here.

1 Comment:

My Favorite Movie Quotes, Volume 12

Rocky (1976)

This may be the most underrated scene in the original Rocky; sandwiched between the famous training montage and the classic bout with Apollo Creed, it tends to get lost in all the excitement. It's notable, however, because it tells the viewer exactly what Rocky hopes to get out of the fight. He doesn't want to knock Creed out. Truthfully, he doesn't care if he wins. No, all Rocky Balboa wants to do is go the distance, fifteen rounds against the heavyweight champion of the world, something nobody before him has managed to do. Ultimately, he wants his life to mean something - to himself, to Adrian, to Mickey, to the world - and knows that this is the best way to prove that it does.

Rocky: I can't do it.
Adrian: What?
Rocky: I can't beat him.
Adrian: Apollo?
Rocky: Yeah. I been out there walkin' around, thinkin'. I mean, who am I kiddin'? I ain't even in the guy's league.
Adrian: What are we gonna do?
Rocky: I don't know.
Adrian: You worked so hard.
Rocky: Yeah, that don't matter. 'Cause I was nobody before.
Adrian: Don't say that.
Rocky: Ah come on, Adrian, it's true. I was nobody. But that don't matter either, you know? 'Cause I was thinkin', it really don't matter if I lose this fight. It really don't matter if this guy opens my head, either. 'Cause all I wanna do is go the distance. Nobody's ever gone the distance with Creed, and if I can go that distance, you see, and that bell rings and I'm still standin', I'm gonna know for the first time in my life, see, that I weren't just another bum from the neighborhood.

1 Comment:

Friday, September 12, 2008

Statistical Oddities: Jon Lester

Every so often, while looking at a baseball player's statistical record, I find someone whose numbers add up in such a way that their career stats become representative of a decent single season for your average full-timer. I've decided to post these as I stumble upon them from time to time. First up is Jon Lester.

Lester isn't a perfect example of this idea because he is still playing and should add substantially to his current career totals. When I looked at his Baseball-Reference.com page yesterday and saw his numbers, however, it was clear that he belonged, if only for a short time.

25-7 W-L, 333.7 innings, 248 strikeouts, 134 walks, 13 hit batsmen, 8 wild pitches, 3.86 ERA, 120 ERA+

I looked at those numbers and immediately thought that Lester belonged in another era, possibly the 1940s or 1950s, when 32 total decisions, 300+ innings pitched, and a relatively low strikeout total weren't all that uncommon. And the control problems, while worrisome, should have kept hitters off balance (although 340 hits and 30 homeruns allowed are interesting counters to that theory).

0 Comments:

My Favorite Movie Quotes, Volume 11

Reign Over Me (2007)

I saw this a few months ago and caught it again last night on one of the premium channels while we were staying at my in-laws. I'll admit to enjoying Adam Sandler's "stupid" roles in movies like Billy Madison and Happy Gilmore, but it's great to see him grow as an actor and be able to handle a character like Charlie Fineman. Not a perfect performance, but certainly commendable.

Charlie Fineman: I don't need to talk about her or look at pictures... 'cause the truth is, a lot of times, I see her... on the street. I walk down the street, I see her in someone else's face... clearer than any of the pictures you carry with you. I get that you're in pain, but you got each other. You got each other! And I'm the one who's gotta see her and the girls all the time. Everywhere I go! I even see the dog. That's how fucked up I still am! I look at a German shepherd, I see our goddamn poodle. All right... All right...

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Thursday, September 11, 2008

Reverse Survivor: The Third Coming

It's almost that time again, folks. The third weekend of the college football season is coming up, so look for the first installment of Reverse Survivor after the smoke clears. Late Sunday afternoon will be the goal.

A quick and dirty check this afternoon revealed some 58 teams still in the running, nearly half those in Division 1 FBS. Twenty-four of those are still winless; the other 34 are eligible because their only win thus far came against an FCS school.

Perennial contenders Florida International, Duke, Utah State and Idaho are all still alive, in one way or another. I'm looking forward to seeing who comes away with the win this season.

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I Have Cried Fire (Or: This Title Might Only Be Funny Because I Just Wrote It After Waking Up In My Chair From a 45 Minute Nap)

Every so often, I feel the need to prove how manly I am.

My wife and I visited New York over the weekend for a party to celebrate her grandmother's 80th birthday. Her Aunt Sue hosted the party and supplied the food and hors d'oeuvres. One of the snacks she put out was shrimp with cocktail sauce. No big deal, right? Actually, it soon became apparent that this WAS a big deal, because the horseradish she added to the cocktail sauce was HOT. Someone had given Aunt Sue a jar of something called Nasal Napalm (note: anytime something is called Nasal Napalm, that should be your first clue that you don't want any part of it), and instead of checking the spiciness and adjusting accordingly, she just added the same amount she always did.

The results were awesome.

I was sitting outside on the deck when Uncle Jeff brought Aunt Colleen a plate of shrimp with sauce on the side. A minute later, Uncle Bill asked me about our trip to the Hall of Fame; he wanted to know if we had seen any Roberto Clemente artifacts there, because Clemente was his hero and he had fond memories of going to Forbes Field as a boy. I was wrapped up in our conversation and didn't immediately realize how much the noise level around me had increased. It wasn't until someone said, "Somebody help her!" that I looked over at Colleen.

Tears were streaming down her face, which had turned a fascinating shade of crimson. Someone handed her a glass of water and she downed it in three seconds. Hello, Nasal Napalm.

Our cousin Erol mentioned in passing a few minutes later that everyone had been trying this stuff and I should too, but I didn't really think of it until I walked into the house and noticed that the tray was gone from the dining room table. "Oh, darn," I said to Erol. "Looks like all that hot sauce is gone. Guess I can't try it now."

No sooner were the words out of my mouth than I saw Uncle Mike, Sue's husband, poke his head out of the kitchen. His next words started in motion a sequence of events from which my digestive system has not yet recovered:

"Oh no, it's not all gone - it's right here!"

They brought the tray into the dining room and left it on the table. Erol put some sauce on a piece of shrimp and handed it to me. I ate it quickly and waited for...nothing. There was no deep burn, just a short burst that made my eyes water and my nose run. It really wasn't that bad and my reaction reflected that - I think I heard Uncle Jerry mutter, "Stoic," to himself.

With the cocktail sauce back on the table, it was only a matter of time before the combination of testosterone and alcohol kicked in and an unofficial competition began. Everyone began downing larger and larger amounts of this stuff, just to see how much they could take. It eventually began to wind down...until someone saw Jeff and I standing off to the side and realized that we had heretofore escaped untested.

Erol, the unofficial ringleader of this silliness, dipped a piece of shrimp and handed it to me. Once again, I put it down without a problem. He took one look at me and said, "Alright, enough of this!" He grabbed another piece and SCOOPED the sauce up with it. This thing was loaded, almost dripping. I looked at it, smelled it, and - BOOM - down the hatch. It hurt a little more, because there was so much, but still - by this point, I had a reputation to uphold and allowed myself as little reaction as possible.

I wish this story ended there, with me proving myself the King of Horseradish and moving on to something less scary, like carrots or celery. It didn't.

Apparently, earlier in the day Sue and Mike's oldest son had dared Erol and our cousin Tom to eat a habanero pepper, which I think he had grown himself. Somehow, after we all survived the Nasal Napalm test, it was decided that pepper tasting time had arrived. Only instead of a friendly three person test of manhood between Erol, Tom, and Matthew, EVERY male in the vicinity received a slice of this thing.

They almost missed me - almost - but someone, I think Jerry, maybe, had to say, "Hey, Brian doesn't have a piece yet. Give Brian a piece!" Whoever it was who pointed out my non-participation - the hole in my esophagus does not appreciate your involvement in this matter. Because I arrived so late in the game, there was only one piece left: the stem and a hefty chunk attached to it. Erol handed it to me triumphantly, with very explicit instructions: "I want to see that whole thing gone, down to the stem."

The countdown was given and down the hatch the slices went. I'm not sure how or when exactly I decided how to attack my piece; all I remember is that it suddenly became clear that I had to use this moment to fuck with Erol's head as much as possible. Very calmly, I bit into one side of my pepper and started chewing. Then, the other side. At this point, he happened to look over, saw what I was doing, and gave me the reaction I was hoping for.

"You SOB," he said, his voice a mix of admiration (I think) and annoyance. I just smiled and continued on, finishing off the part that was attached to the stem. There's a good chance that I completed my dickishness by actually licking the end of the stem, but I'm not sure about that, because it was at this point that the heat from the pepper hit my mouth and I'm pretty sure I actually felt my brain cells dying. Seriously.

Everyone was in some sort of pain at this point; I'd like to think I hid mine fairly well, despite the fact that my face felt like it was literally seconds away from bursting into flames. Someone said that milk would take the burning away - to that faceless someone: thou art my savior! - and I watched as Sue walked over, opened up the refrigerator...and realized that she would have to go downstairs to get a new gallon of milk.

I never thought I would lose my shit at the thought of having to wait roughly one minute for a twelve ounce glass of milk, but that was the longest minute of my life. When the cellar door opened and she emerged with that container, it felt like V-J Day in Times Square, folks:

Only without the kissing. That would've been weird.

The milk killed the burn, thankfully, even though Aunt Della wandered past a few minutes later and casually remarked, "You know what's funny? The fat in the milk is what helps make the burn go away - and this is skim milk!" Didn't matter - I soon figured out that holding the milk in my mouth for as long as possible worked just fine. Soon enough, we started to recover. Erol drank milk from a wine glass, Tom looked like he might actually fall over and die right there, and I rubbed my eye with the hand that had been holding the pepper, but we all survived in the end. And I can still see, which is an added bonus.

I'll bet you think the story ends there, don't you? It doesn't.

Vicki's Uncle Mike is sort of like Red from The Shawshank Redemption: he has a reputation within our family as the guy who can get things. You're at their house and have a hankering for some obscure soda that you tried once when you were seven and really liked but you can't remember the name or the flavor and think it might have been a small brand that was only produced regionally in western Idaho for two weeks in the mid-1980s? Don't worry: Mike has it in the cellar.

As the horseradish/pepper ordeal was starting to wind down, Mike rummaged around in the kitchen cupboards and came out with a small bottle of reddish liquid. The name on the label? Dave's Insanity Sauce.

Oh. Shit.

He gently set it down on the kitchen peninsula (I've never heard that used before, but what else do you call the section of a counter that juts out into the kitchen?) and said, "Let's just leave this right here and see what happens."

Did I mention that I think Mike might be the Devil?

Sure enough, Erol saw the bottle and decided we had to try it out. Most everyone else had had enough, so I became his hot sauce eating buddy. Only this time, we were smart (and, as I tried to explain to him, I was pretty sure the pepper had burned a gaping hole in my chest) and used toothpicks. Just a little bit, enough to get a little sting (unless you were Erol and decided that this was a good time for a drink of water. Hello, mouth on fire). Pretty boring. The highlight of this segment of the evening was Matthew. He had only had a small piece of pepper, even after making the initial challenge to Tom and Erol, so they called on him to try the Insanity Sauce. His parents weren't keen on the idea, but he was given a toothpick anyway. Somebody warned him to only try a little bit; being thirteen, he downed it in a way that made me proud, carefully licking off as much sauce as he could get before scampering away to play video games.

Two minutes later he reappeared in the kitchen, calmly walked to the refrigerator, took out a container of sour cream, found a spoon, helped himself to a spoonful, put the sour cream away, and went back into the other room without a word. On any other day, it might have seemed strange.

Anyway, THAT was the end, more or less. Mike pulled another container of hot stuff called Death Rain (Reign?), but it was in powder form and not all that spicy. So that was that. We were done testing our manhood for the night. I don't know if I "won", but I do know that I handled myself quite well. And it did NOT burn when I went to the bathroom later on, so that was nice.

"And you know what's really ironic?" I said to Vicki on our way home. "I don't even like spicy food."

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Wednesday, September 10, 2008

The Smallest Things Fascinate Me

The following two cereals were seen side-by-side tonight at my local Market Basket (and a number of other grocery stores, apparently; the top picture is from Flavorite, and I saw a couple other chains represented while searching the Web).



Clearly, I need to get a job in the marketing department for the company that supplies Crispy Hexagons to the various chains. Creativity does not appear to be among the job requirements.

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Thursday, September 04, 2008

Obama vs. Palin

I know it's not the cleanest comparison, since one is running for president and the other for vice-president, but these were definitely the two political speeches everyone was waiting for:



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If Nothing Else, Her Kids Are Adorable

I absolutely could not understand why little Trig Palin, all of four months old, was not home in his crib tonight while his mother accepted the Republican nomination for vice-president (it would have impressed me more than anything if he wasn't there; I understand the desire to have your entire family present at such an important event, but keeping an infant at a noisy, crowded convention well past ten o'clock absolutely stinks of political posturing).

The video below is one possible reason. Maybe, just maybe, God wanted me to laugh tonight.



Piper and Trig are, without a doubt, my favorite members of the Palin clan.

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Our Song

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Tuesday, September 02, 2008

The History Of Us

My wife and I met on December 19, 1999. We became a couple that night, and have been a couple ever since.

Our first four years, nine months, and fifteen days together were spent in the relationship minor leagues. We started out in Class A, getting a feel for the whole “having someone else as a part of my life” thing, before moving up to AA in the spring of 2002 – that was around the time I visited GM Pollack & Sons at the Fox Run Mall, picked out a ring with a diamond in the middle and sapphires on either side, and made the first payment on her engagement ring.*

*Even though I worked in Cooperstown that summer and brought home a paltry $200 a week as an intern, I managed to get the ring paid off and in my physical possession by Christmas. As was our eventual custom, we spent Christmas Day with my family. My older sister, Jennifer, has always liked my wife and was giving me a hard time all day: “So when are you gonna do it? When are you gonna marry this girl? How long are you gonna make her wait?” And so on. She didn’t know about the ring – she was just being a nuisance. Finally, I looked at her as sternly as I could manage and said, “Come with me.” We went upstairs to my room, where I’m sure she thought I was gonna lay into her, which would’ve been awkward because I can count the number of times I’ve ever yelled at my sister on one fist. But no, I didn’t yell. I just walked calmly over to my filing cabinet, dug out the hidden ring box, and showed her.

Jen’s eyes just about bugged out of her head. She looked at the ring, then at me, obviously having no clue what to say.

“So you see,” I said, “I’m planning on asking Vicki to marry me. I don’t know when, or how, but I am planning on it. You all just have to give me some time.”

She nodded her assent, we went back downstairs, and she looked properly chastened as we told Vicki how I had yelled at her for placing unwanted pressure on me regarding this highly personal matter.

I don’t know if I grew up in my big sister’s eyes that day, but I’d like to think so.

The promotion to AAA came on March 19, 2003 – the day we stood in front of the silent fountains at the Bellagio Hotel in Las Vegas at one o’clock in the morning and I asked her to marry me. In other words, the scariest day of my life. It was definitely happening in Vegas – I had smuggled the ring through airport security in my pocket, lest our luggage get lost and my plans dashed (looking back, I’m amazed that I thought of this possibility. I’m usually the most absent-minded, “fly by the seat of my pants” person in the world). An attempt had been made at dinner earlier in the evening, but I was forced to abort when it proved too difficult to physically access the ring – it was in a fanny pack-type thing I was wearing, which was tucked underneath my shirt, which was tucked into my pants, which made it nearly impossible to reach. So, as we made our way around Vegas later that night, I decided: it was Bellagio or bust.

We were out there for at least an hour, by ourselves (they turn the fountains off at midnight or so and people stop flocking), while I worked up the courage to pop the question – fittingly, I passed the time by asking her random questions about baseball history. I think I mentioned the first World Series about 14 times before she asked to go back to our hotel, forcing me to get down to business:

“Okay, two more questions, then we can go.”

“Alright, two more questions.”

“Okay…do you love me?”

“Of course.”

“Willyoumarryme?” (That’s really how it came out – all one word.)

[shocked] “What? When?”

[realizing we ARE still in Vegas] “Well, not right now. We’ll set a date eventually. You realize you haven’t said “yes” yet?”

“YES!”

And…scene.

Almost eighteen months later, on September 4, 2004, we finally reached the majors when we were married at St. Patrick’s Church in Nashua. It was a strange feeling the night before, knowing that I was about to get married, but at the same time I didn’t really feel as nervous as I thought I should. We had our rehearsal dinner at Holman Stadium, where my boss cut my parents a great deal on the use of a luxury suite for the night, and went back to the hotel we were staying in (my parents were staying at our apartment). My groomsmen decided I was nervous – I still say I wasn’t all that worried - and took me out for one last drink as a single guy, a drink that I never appreciated until just now, when I wrote “single guy” and realized, “Wow, that really was the end of an era in my life – and it only took me four years to figure it out.” We went to Applebees. After, they took me back to the hotel, where I laid on the floor and talked to my brother until he fell asleep.*

*There were three of us sleeping on one room that night - me, my brother, and one of my other groomsmen. There were two beds. Somehow, I, the guy getting married the next day, was given two options: sleeping in a bed with my brother or sleeping on the floor. I still have absolutely no idea how this happened, but I do know this: no matter how nice the hotel, the floor is not a comfortable place to spend the night.

As I stood at the altar the next day, my brother by my side, waiting for Vicki to appear at the end of the aisle, I had no idea how I was going to react when I saw her. Now, four years later, I understand that it wasn’t important, because I remember the way SHE reacted when she saw ME, when she started walking down the aisle and came to the realization that this was it, this was the moment she had been waiting for forever.

She looked happier than I had ever seen her.

That’s a remarkable thing, to see someone you love and care about more than anyone else in the world attain that level of happiness. It’s even more remarkable to step back and realize that YOU’RE the reason she feels that way, that she’s walking down the aisle on a cloud of air, glowing like a light bulb, face adorned with a huge smile, tears of joys filling her eyes, because this is the day she begins the rest of her life with YOU, and that is the most exciting feeling she has ever felt. I mean…wow. Everyone should know how it feels to not only have that effect on someone, but to see it with their own two eyes. It's amazing.

It’s been four years since our wedding day, and I can say without the slightest doubt that the past twelve months have been the most trying time of our life together. (Think Clay Buchholz in 2008; you throw a no-hitter as a rookie, then toss up a 2-9, 6.75 crapfest the following year.) We welcomed a child into the world, which was easily the most fantastic moment of our lives, but at the same time, you’re never as ready to be a parent as you think you are, and Joey’s birth put a strain on our relationship. Vicki was learning to be a good mother, I was learning to be a good father, and in our efforts to do that we forgot how to be good partners. I told a friend recently that husbands and wives shouldn’t be allowed to divorce until their children are at least two years old, if then. When you consider the stress you’re both under up to that point, plus the fact that you’re constantly changing as individuals anyway, the chances of making a rash decision are just too great. I mean, I got to the point where I could totally understand why guys run out on their wives and kids – you get crazy, all the worrying about money and the future and whatnot, the world closing in on you, and before you know it you reach a breaking point and out the door you go.

Funny thing, though: I can’t live without her. She’s been my life for so long, our lives are so inextricably tied together, that I just wouldn’t even know what to do if we weren’t together. It would feel wrong, somehow. Yeah, there are times I need my space – maybe I want to have a weekend on my own, or go to a movie by myself, or sleep in on a Sunday – but those are only momentary needs. Over the long haul, day in and day out, Vicki and Joey are my life.

She told me once, when we were having a particularly tough time about three months ago, that sometimes she looked at me and felt like she didn’t know me anymore – or, worse, like she had never really known me to begin with. At the time, I agreed. My life was in a state of upheaval and I wasn’t sure how well I really knew myself. Well, I’m still not sure exactly who I am or what I stand for in this world, but I now feel comfortable naming at least two parts of my identity, the two most important parts: I am a husband, and I am a father. If I stick to those, everything else will fall into place.

Vicki and I haven’t laughed a lot over the past several months – there have been more smiles lately, a lot more, but not nearly enough – but I have a goal. Remember that feeling I described above, from our wedding day? The feeling that someone is deliriously happy, has reached the absolute highest state of happiness that a person can achieve, and you are the reason? My goal is to try and remind Vicki about that feeling as much as possible. I want her to look at me every day and say to herself, “This is the man that I love. He makes me happier than anyone else in the whole world possibly could.” I think that’s a good goal.

Jim Valvano, the old North Carolina State basketball coach (I know, I’m switching it up from baseball to basketball, but Jimmy V is one of my heroes), once said, “If you laugh, you think, and you cry, that’s a full day. That’s a heck of a day. You do that seven days a week, you’re going to have something special.” I want to do that with Vicki, every day for the rest of our lives. I want each of us to work hard to make the other a better person and a better parent. I want people to look at us in fifty years and say, "I want what you two have."

I think we can do it. Because when we’re good, we make each other float on air.

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You Gotta Believe!

This Thursday, my wife and I will celebrate our fourth wedding anniversary. If all goes well, this will be the first in a series of posts about her, about us, and about how great she is.

There's a picture on my old cell phone. It's my wife, and it was taken last spring at a Nashua Pride baseball game. The home team was trailing, 8-0, going into the bottom of the ninth, when Vicki decided it was time for a rally. She took our son's little baseball cap, turned it inside out, and perched it on top of her head. I snapped one picture with my phone, but she was turning to talk to someone, so we had to do another. She posed this time, curling her hands into fists and pasting a big, silly smile on her face. Her eyes danced with laughter, happiness, and the utter ridiculousness of rooting for a nine run rally.

It's just an ordinary picture, snapped at the end of a meaningless May game with a crappy cell phone. But it's my favorite.

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The Last Lecture

My wife bought Randy Pausch's "The Last Lecture" on Saturday and I tore through it as fast as possible over the past two days. It's a fast read that was mostly done in the bathroom, which led to a strange moment this evening: as I reached the end, a couple things in the book hit a nerve and I found myself sitting on the toilet, my nose getting more and more stuffy and starting to run as the tears began streaming down my face. (I looked in the mirror a few minutes later and was shocked at how crappy I looked.) So how did I handle this unexpected outburst? I sat there and covered my face with the book in case my wife walked by - because apparently it's okay for her to see me taking a dump, but not okay for her to see me crying while doing so. That actually made laugh, when I thought about it later.

Anyway, this super duper long video is Pausch's speech, upon which the book was based. I highly recommend viewing it at some point, either before or after reading, because a lot of the wording is similar and it allows us to see the aspects of his personality that might not be fully evident via the written word.

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Monday, September 01, 2008

Peter King Is Not An Expert On Baseball Or Analogies

Maybe I'm not as smart as the rest of the world, but I find myself liking a lot of things that other people don't. Dane Cook? Enjoy his work. Laugh every time I listen to it. Nicolas Cage? He'll never really be considered a top thespian, yet I count many of his movies among my favorites. Manny Ramirez? Dogged it a lot during his final days in Boston, sure, but he also played the game with a youthful joy that I found refreshing.

Peter King falls into the same category. A lot of people don't like him very much, I think because we are almost preconditioned to despise anyone who appears on our television or computer and tells us why things are the way they are - especially when said person is wrong a lot of the time (paging Mr. Mortensen) or holds a clear bias toward a given player or team (Mr. King, call on line one).

For the most part, though, I like King. True, his ramblings about airline travel and coffee can border on whiny, and he clearly knows nothing about any sport besides football, but that's actually the stuff that I usually enjoy. When he talks about his daughters or waxes poetic about Dustin Pedroia - those are the types of topics that catch my eye in MMQB, because at that point he ceases to be a national football reporter and becomes a regular guy, a dad who is proud of his kids and a fan who is deeply impressed by a specific player.

So I feel kinda bad in pointing out a couple of things from this week's MMQB column that didn't really sit well with me. Not that they were truly, deeply offensive - I don't think they were. The first one was just a terrible comparison; the second, a ridiculous statement about Roger Clemens that highlights his "casual fan" status.

Okay, here's the first point that bothered me:

Did you notice Chris Henry was one of Cincinnati's weekly captains for its final exhibition game? I think Sirhan Sirhan got his Eagle Scout badge in the big house years ago too.
Chris Henry as a Bengals captain is indeed an ironic occurrence worthy of inclusion in an Alanis Morissette song. See, that's a stupid, hacky joke about the dichotomy between Henry's troubled legal history and his short-term captaincy. I think it works. King, on the other hand, took a different route, comparing Henry to a guy who killed a presidential candidate forty years ago. A very, very odd choice, that was.

Still, all that really is is an analogy that didn't work. It happens all the time in writing, and is highlighted more than ever now that Internet watchdogs have sprung up to point them out (this is usually a good thing, though relatively benign statements are sometimes flagged unnecessarily). Frankly, I'm more offended by this wise observation:
Manny hasn't taken a day off in L.A. and he's stolen two bases in a month. In his final two months in Boston, he was playing in quicksand; he had one steal in his last three years with Boston. Same sort of I'll-show-you thing when Roger Clemens left Boston. Had Clemens stayed, he'd have been just a guy the rest of his career. Doubt me? Look at Clemens' last four years in Boston ... the definition of mediocrity.
I'm not denying that Manny Ramirez didn't always play hard because he wanted out of Boston, or that Roger Clemens might have played with a chip on his shoulder because of the way Dan Duquette casually dismissed his decision to leave via free agency. Both of those things are, in my opinion, true. But to suggest that Clemens' final four seasons with the Red Sox are "the definition of mediocrity" is an incorrect statement that shows little willingness to look at actual statistical evidence before parroting the same tired lines that Sox fans have been spouting for the last decade.

It's true that from 1993 to 1996, Clemens was not always the dominant force he had once been for the Red Sox. His won-lost record in those four seasons was 40-42, including 11-14 in 1993 and 10-13 in 1996, the only two losing marks he posted in his 24-year career. Those numbers, however, are less about Clemens as a pitcher than they are about the validity of wins as a statistic. Me, I like wins just fine - I still like looking at the league leaders in early September and seeing who has a chance to reach twenty, or seeing a guy like Cliff Lee the mark with a month to go and thinking about how many victories he might have when all is said and done. Mention wins to anyone with a sabermetric bent, though, and you're asking for trouble. This, for instance, is how Fire Joe Morgan describes wins:
Wins
1. The only stat that matters. The only way to pick a Cy Young winner. The thing Billy Beane can't get in the playoffs, no matter how many fancy computers he hires to play baseball for him.

2. A simply awful pitching statistic that should be swallowed up by the earth itself, personified, given ears, and forced to listen to a tape loop of Bermanisms for all of eternity. The reason being – and again, you know this, intuitively, even if you have never quite expressed it to yourself – if Carl Pavano gives up nineteen runs in five innings but the Yankees score 20 runs, and they hold on to win, and Pavano gets the win, is Pavano a good pitcher? No he is not. (This scenario is assuming he ever comes back and actually pitches, btw.) If Francisco Liriano throws 9 innings of no-hit ball, but gives up a run on four consecutive errors by Terry Tiffey and gets a loss, is Francisco Liriano a bad pitcher? No he is not. Wins stink to high heaven as a way to value pitchers because they are in very large part dependent on the actions of the other guys on the team.
They really don't like wins.

But here's the thing with regards to Clemens: in one of those losing seasons, 1993, he actually was kinda mediocre - in addition to the 11-14 won-lost record, he walked more batters than normal (5 more than the year before, in 55 fewer innings), hit a then-career high eleven batters, had an ERA that was just barely below the league average (4.46 vs. 4.64) and an ERA+ of 104, just barely above league average. For that season, yeah, he wasn't good.

The next year, Clemens went 9-7 and continued to struggle with his control (71 walks in 170.7 innings). Must've been a bad year, right? Um, no. Despite the low wins total, Clemens finished with a 2.85 ERA, 168 strikeouts and a 177 ERA+ in 24 starts - and that's without the last month and a half of a strike-shortened season. Those numbers are pretty solid as is; imagine what they might have looked like with an additional 8-10 starts.

Alright, so that's one excellent season, one average season. 1995 was better than 1993, but still not great; his 10-5 record was offset by a 4.18 ERA, 14 hit batters, 60 walks in 140 innings...he wasn't all that and a bag of chips. But 1996...1996 was a very good year: top ten finishes in ERA, WHIP, hits per nine innings, strikeouts per nine innings, innings, strikeouts, complete game, shutouts, walks allowed, strikeout-to-walk ratio, batters faced, and ERA+. He wasn't outstanding - at least not until September 18, when he destroyed the Tigers with the second twenty strikeout performance of his career - but he was very, very good.

In his last four years in Boston, Clemens averaged an ERA+ of 134, well below his usual standards (from 1986, when he became Roger Clemens, to 1992, he only dipped below that mark one time) but well above average for a major league pitcher. As most Red Sox fans have probably realized, it would be presumptuous to say with 100% certainty that he would not have enjoyed a fine ending to a storied career. Would he have won four more Cy Young awards, a World Series, recorded three more twenty-win seasons, pitched eleven more seasons? I don't know. Probably not. But I do know that if the remainder of his career had been spent in a Red Sox uniform, he would have performed fairly well and we would still have been looking at a surefire Hall of Famer when he decided to retire.

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