Friday, October 26, 2007

How Do FCS Teams Do Against FBS Opponents?

When word came over the ticker that North Dakota State, the top ranked team in the Football Championship Subdivision, had gone into Minnesota and upset the Golden Gophers, my thoughts immediately turned to the quality of the Big Ten conference.

While not as shocking as Michigan’s loss to Appalachian State in the season opener, the Minnesota-North Dakota State was still the second time in 2007 that an FCS team had ventured up a division, stepped onto the home field of a member team in one of the most powerful conferences in college football, and walked off sixty minutes later with a victory. Was the Big Ten really that bad, I asked myself, or are such upsets more common than we realize?

In the hopes of answering that question, I looked at the schedules of every FBS team and put together a list of the games each played against FCS opponents. There have been 70 interdivisional games to this point (all but one between an FBS and FCS team), with eight more remaining. The FBS record in those contests: 62-8, a healthy .886 winning percentage, with seven of the eight defeats coming at the hands of teams ranked in the top ten of the most recent FCS poll.

In the six BCS conferences – ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC – that mark goes to 34-3 (.919), with Michigan, Minnesota and Iowa State suffering the only losses. It’s hard to find much fault with any of those teams, however: Michigan was ranked in the top fifth at the time of its defeat but lost to the two-time defending national champion, and Minnesota’s and Iowa State’s vanquishers are currently #1 and #2, respectively.

The most surprising part of this exercise? Three FBS teams have padded their schedules with two or more FCS programs. One of those, Western Kentucky, doesn’t come as much of a shock: the Hilltoppers are still fairly new to the FBS and appear to be in the process of transitioning/honoring old commitments (the September 8 game against West Virginia Tech, for instance: both were 1-AA schools when the rivalry started, but each has since shifted a division, with Western Kentucky moving up to the FBS and Tech moving down to Division II. Needless to say, that game ended in an 87-0 blowout). Of the school’s twelve games this season, half are against FCS or lower opponents.

The other two teams with two FCS opponents are both in the Western Athletic Conference. One is little surprise (New Mexico State, currently fifth in the conference), but the other shocked the hell out of me: Hawaii, the 16th ranked team in the nation.

I seem to remember reading something last year about the difficulty Hawaii was having in scheduling opponents (because they’re really good and it’s a hell of a haul to get your team there), but this is still slightly nuts. You can have one game against an FCS team on your schedule and still contend for the national championship (if you’re in a decent conference) – you can’t have multiple games combined with a weak conference schedule and expect to be respected as a serious contender.

One last note: there was talk earlier this season of whether or not Appalachian State deserved a Top 25 ranking after beating Michigan. Well…why no such reaction for North Dakota State, which is the only FCS school with two upsets (Minnesota, Central Michigan) on its resume?

Atlantic Coast (6-0)
Boston College – beat Massachusetts, 24-14, on September 29
Clemson – beat Furman, 38-10, on September 15
Georgia Tech – beat Samford, 69-14, September 8
North Carolina – beat James Madison, 37-14, on September 1
North Carolina State – beat Wofford, 38-17, on September 15
Virginia Tech – beat William & Mary, 44-3, on September 22

Big East (6-0)
Cincinnati – beat Southeast Missouri State, 59-3, on August 30
Connecticut – beat Maine, 38-0, on September 8
Louisville – beat Murray State, 73-10, on August 30
Pittsburgh – beat Grambling State, 34-10, September 8
Rutgers – beat Norfolk State, 59-0, on September 15
South Florida – beat Elon, 28-13, on September 1

Big Ten (6-2)
Illinois – beat Western Illinois, 21-0, on September 8
Indiana – beat Indiana State, 55-7, on September 1
Michigan – lost to Appalachian State, 34-32, on September 1
Minnesota – lost to North Dakota State, 27-21, on October 20
Northwestern – beat Northeastern, 27-0, on September 1
Ohio State – beat Youngstown State, 38-6, on September 1
Purdue – beat Eastern Illinois, 52-6, on September 8
Wisconsin – beat Citadel, 45-31, on September 15

Big 12 (7-1)
Baylor – beat Texas State, 34-27, on September 15
Iowa State – lost to Northern Iowa, 24-13, on September 8
Kansas – beat Southeastern Louisiana, 62-0, on September 8
Kansas State – beat Missouri State, 61-10, on September 15
Missouri – beat Illinois State, 38-17, on September 22
Oklahoma State – beat Sam Houston State, 39-3, September 29
Texas A&M – beat Montana State, 38-7, on September 1
Texas Tech – Northwestern State, 75-7, on September 29

Conference USA (5-2, one remaining)
Houston – plays Texas Southern on November 24
Marshall – lost to New Hampshire, 48-35, on September 15
Memphis – beat Jacksonville State, 35-14, on September 15
Rice – lost to Nicholls State, 16-14, on September 1
Southern Miss – beat Tennessee-Martin, 35-13, on September 1
Tulane – beat Southeastern Louisiana, 35-27, on September 22
UAB – beat Alcorn State, 22-0, on September 15
UTEP – beat Texas Southern, 52-12, on September 22

Mid-American (5-2)
Central Michigan – lost to North Dakota State, 44-14, on September 22
Eastern Michigan – beat Howard, 38-15, on September 22
Kent State – beat Delaware State, 38-7, on September 15
Northern Illinois – lost to Southern Illinois, 34-31, on September 8
Ohio – beat Gardner-Webb, 36-14, on September 1
Toledo – beat Liberty, 35-34, on October 6
Western Michigan – beat Central Connecticut State, 51-14, on September 22

Mountain West (4-0, one remaining)
Air Force – beat South Carolina State, 34-3, on September 1
Brigham Young – beat Eastern Washington, 42-7, on October 20
Colorado State – plays Georgia Southern on November 17
New Mexico – beat Sacramento State, 58-0, on September 22
San Diego State – beat Portland State, 52-17, on September 22

Pacific-10 (2-0)
Arizona – beat Northern Arizona, 45-24, on September 8
Oregon State – beat Idaho State, 61-10, on September 15

Southeastern (7-0, one remaining)
Alabama – beat Western Carolina, 52-6, on September 1
Arkansas – beat Chattanooga, 34-15, on October 6
Georgia – beat Western Carolina, 45-16, on September 15
Kentucky – beat Eastern Kentucky, 50-10, on September 1
Mississippi – plays Northwestern State on November 3
Mississippi State – beat Gardner-Webb, 34-15, on September 22
South Carolina – beat South Carolina State, 38-3, on September 15
Vanderbilt – beat Richmond, 41-17, on September 1

Sun Belt (0-1, one remaining)
Louisiana-Lafayette – lost to McNeese State, 38-17, on September 15
Louisiana-Monroe – plays Grambling State on November 10

Western Athletic (10-0)
Boise State – beat Weber State, 56-7, on August 30
Fresno State – beat Sacramento State, 24-3, on September 1
Hawaii – beat Northern Colorado, 63-6, on September 2
Hawaii – beat Charleston Southern, 66-10, on September 23
Idaho – beat Cal Poly, 20-13, on September 8
Louisiana Tech – beat Central Arkansas, 28-7, on September 1
Nevada – beat Nicholls State, 52-17, on September 15
New Mexico State – beat Southeastern Louisiana, 35-14, on August 30
New Mexico State – beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 20-17, on September 29
San Jose State – beat California-Davis, 34-14, on September 29

Independents (4-0, four remaining)
Army – beat Rhode Island, 14-7, on September 8
Navy – plays Delaware on October 27
Western Kentucky – beat West Virginia Tech (Division II), 87-0, on September 8
Western Kentucky – beat Eastern Kentucky, 26-6, on September 15
Western Kentucky – beat Indiana State, 56-7, on October 20
Western Kentucky – plays North Carolina Central on October 27
Western Kentucky – plays Chattanooga on November 3

Western Kentucky – plays Morehead State on November 17

7 Comments:

Fargo Highlife said...

Thanks for the post, good stuff. As a NDSU alum, it's nice to see them get a little national exposure. They should have beat UM last year too, but for a blocked FG at the end of the game. Plus the Bison beat Wisconsin in basketball two eyars ago...at Wisconsin. I say just move NDSU to the Big 10 and I bet they'd rank closer tot he top then the bottom.

Worst part about NDSU is that, despite being number one in the FCS, they can't go to the playoffs because they're still in the "probationary" period after transferring from D2.

TBender said...

Even better, ND State was D-II until 2004 and aren't eligible for the I-AA playoffs until next season.

MO Boiler said...

Didn't UNH beat Northwestern in Evanston either last year or a few years ago?

Brendan said...

Let's hold on here, there's no way NDSU competes in the top half of the Big 10 in either basketball or football for the first 10 years. They've won a couple games in the past few years, but usually from teams looking past them due to their status. If teams took them seriously and paid attention to scouting reports, they'd demolish them.

That being said, I'd love to add NDSU into the Big 10, I think it's a good school with a developing athletic program. The travel time to Penn State would be awful.

Anonymous said...

Regarding your comment about WKU playing WV Tech:

West Virginia Tech has never I-AA, in fact, they have dropped back to NAIA after a brief stint at the NCAA Division II level.

One More Dying Quail said...

fargo, tbender - I didn't realize ND State isn't eligible for the playoffs. That makes those two wins that much more impressive, in my book.

mo - UNH did beat Northwestern last season, 34-17, when they were the second ranked team in Division 1AA.

brendan - I agree that FCS to the Big Ten would be a big leap. It's not so crazy, however, to imagine them in the WAC, is it?

anonymous - Thanks for the correction. I had looked up the information for a post after the Western Kentucky game and trusted my memory a little too much in writing this post. The fact that the distance between the two teams was even greater than remembered makes it even more interesting.

Jon said...

as a grad of James Madison, another school preparing to transition from FCS to FBS, i can guarantee that the upper eshelon of FCS teams can compete with mediocre FBS teams. and yes, they could jump into the Big Ten. they wouldn't be in the top for a while, but i KNOW they'd beat northwestern, vanderbilt in the SEC, Syracuse in the Big East, you get the idea. there isn't as big of a drop-off from some FBS teams to other FCS teams. much lesser drop-off than FCS to Div. II.