Tuesday, June 05, 2007

Pitchers and the First Overall Pick: Is It Worth the Risk?

If you are a major league general manager with the first overall pick in the draft and you’re thinking about selecting a starting pitcher to serve as the ace of your staff for the next ten years, let me give you some advice: don’t do it. History is not on your side.

Twelve pitchers were taken with the first overall pick between 1973 (David Clyde) and 2006 (Luke Hochevar), nine of whom played at least five seasons in the major leagues (Brien Taylor injured his shoulder in an off-field incident in the minors and was never the same pitcher; Bryan Bullington appeared in one game for Pittsburgh in 2005 before missing the entire 2006 season with a shoulder injury; and Hochevar is only in his second professional season after being drafted last June). Four of those nine played more than ten seasons and won more than 100 games, including Mike Moore (161), Andy Benes (155), Tim Belcher (146), and Floyd Bannister (134); Moore (176) and Bannister (143) each had losing records.

As of June 5, none of the twelve pitchers listed below had appeared in a major league game in 2007, although Bullington will almost certainly be called up by the Pirates should he continue to pitch well in Triple-A Indianapolis (9-2, 2.92). Hochevar and Kris Benson are currently on the 40-man rosters for Kansas City and Baltimore, respectively; Hochevar is 3-5 with a 4.71 ERA for Wichita, while Benson is out for the season with a torn rotator cuff.


Year Player Team Yrs W-L SO ERA
2006 Luke Hochevar* Kansas City DNP
2002 Bryan Bullington* Pittsburgh 1 0-0 1 13.50
1997 Matt Anderson Detroit 7 15-7 224 5.19
1996 Kris Benson* Pittsburgh 7 68-73 787 4.34
1994 Paul Wilson New York (N) 7 40-58 619 4.86
1991 Brien Taylor New York (A) DNP
1989 Ben McDonald Baltimore 9 78-70 894 3.91
1988 Andy Benes San Diego 14 155-139 2000 3.97
1983 Tim Belcher Minnesota 14 146-140 1519 4.16
1981 Mike Moore Seattle 14 161-176 1667 4.39
1976 Floyd Bannister Houston 15 134-143 1723 4.06
1973 David Clyde Texas 5 18-33 228 4.63


Given a chance to do it all over again, I'm not sure any team would take any of these pitchers with the first overall pick in the draft. Taylor and his unrealized potential might be an option (just keep him out of bar fights - or teach him to swing with his right hand), but who else stands out? Benes? Hochevar? Moore (terrible numbers early in his career with Seattle, averaged 16-17 wins a year in four seasons with good Oakland teams)? Honestly, you're better off taking a position player first (as we'll see tomorrow) and picking up pitching later.

Tomorrow: career statistics and commentary on the thirty position players who were taken with the first pick.

2 Comments:

twins15 said...

Good stuff... I'm looking forward to looking at the position players.

rstiles said...

I would not draft a pitcher in the first 2 rounds!!!....Pitchers are a dime a dozen...they are too freakin fragile...

Look at the Pirates...almost every pitcher they drafted high has had some type of injury problem....and look at some of the players they passed on..