The 5th Pick

When you get right down to it, Celtics fans really have absolutely no right to complain about anything. True, the team has traveled a rough road these past twenty years, from Len Bias to Reggie Lewis to M.L. Carr to Rick Pitino to Danny Ainge and Doc Rivers to 2005’s Game 7 debacle against the Pacers to Tanking For Oden, but how can you complain about all that when the previous thirty seasons featured Red Auerbach, Bill Russell, eight straight championships, “Havlicek stole the ball!”, Dave Cowens, and Larry Bird?

Really, I don’t think you can.

So instead of getting all weepy and tearing up the odes we had written in preparation of The Savior’s arrival (sorry, I’m an unabashed Oden supporter who believes that his performance in the national championship game was a harbinger of twenty years of pure, unadulterated dominance; as far as I’m concerned, he was the only choice the Celtics could have made had they landed the number one), let’s actually do something somewhat productive – like providing a chart listing all the number five picks in the lottery era and seeing what kind of player generally comes out of that position.

Year	Name, Team	Yrs	PPG	RPG	APG
2006	Shelden Williams, Atlanta Hawks*	1	5.5	5.4	0.5
2005	Raymond Felton, Charlotte Bobcats*	2	12.9	3.4	6.3
2004	Devin Harris, Washington Wizards*	3	8.5	2.0	3.0
2003	Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat*	4	23.8	5.0	6.4
2002	Nickoloz Tskitishvili, Denver Nuggets	4	2.9	1.8	0.7
2001	Jason Richardson, Golden State Warriors*	6	18.3	5.4	3.2
2000	Mike Miller, Orlando Magic*	7	14.1	4.5	2.9
1999	Jonathan Bender, Toronto Raptors	7	5.6	2.2	0.6
1998	Vince Carter, Golden State Warriors*	9	24.1	5.4	4.1
1997	Tony Battie, Denver Nuggets*	10	6.7	5.6	0.7
1996	Ray Allen, Minnesota Timberwolves*	11	21.5	4.6	3.9
1995	Kevin Garnett, Minnesota Timberwolves*	12	20.5	11.4	4.5
1994	Juwan Howard, Washington Bullets*	13	16.1	7.1	2.6
1993	Isaiah Rider, Minnesota Timberwolves	9	16.7	3.8	2.7
1992	LaPhonso Ellis, Denver Nuggets	11	11.9	6.5	1.6
1991	Steve Smith, Miami Heat	14	14.3	3.2	3.1
1990	Kendall Gill, Charlotte Hornets	15	13.4	4.1	3.0
1989	J.R. Reid, Charlotte Hornets	11	8.5	5.0	1.0
1988	Mitch Richmond, Golden State Warriors	14	21.0	3.9	3.5
1987	Scottie Pippen, Seattle Supersonics	17	16.1	6.4	5.2
1986	Kenny Walker, New York Knicks	7	7.0	4.0	0.7
1985	Jon Koncak, Atlanta Hawks	11	4.5	4.9	1.0

Of the 22 players who were drafted fifth between 1985 and 2006, eleven were still active at the end of the 2006-2007 season. The old man in the group is Juwan Howard, the former member of the Fab Five who was drafted by Washington in 1994 (back when they were still the Bullets) and just finished up his thirteenth season with his fifth NBA team (in order: Washington, Dallas, Denver, Orlando, Houston).

The first name that immediately jumps out as a bust is Nickoloz Tskitishvili, Denver’s 2002 first rounder who was recently labeled “the worst-case scenario for any foreign pick” by Bill Simmons. Skitish actually saw a reasonable level of action his first season in the league, averaging 16.4 minutes in 81 games for the Nuggets, but it was all downhill from there. After four NBA seasons with four different teams, he did not play in the league in 2006-07.

If Skitish is the number one draft bust out of this position, I imagine the rest of that Top Five looking something like this (we’ll give Shelden Williams and Devin Harris a pass, for now): Jonathan Bender, Tony Battie, Kenny Walker, and Jon Koncak.

On the flip side of the busts are the success stories. Five players – Mitch Richmond, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Vince Carter, and Dwyane Wade – had or have career averages of 20+ points per game. Garnett is probably the most complete player in the group (20.5, 11.4, 4.5), although Wade (23.8, 5.0, 6.4) also has solid all-around numbers.

One guy who slips through the cracks when looking at the basic points-rebounds-assists numbers? Scottie Pippen. Pippen, of course, was a special player alongside Michael Jordan on the great Chicago Bulls teams of the 1990s, but his post-Jordan career totals weren’t nearly as impressive. Still, he’s one of those Top 50 All-Time players, a Hall of Famer who shows that you can’t always go on the strength of those basic numbers.

Basically, this is what it comes down to for the Celtics on draft night: best case, they end up with Dwyane Wade or Kevin Garnett, a special player who could make an immediate impact. Worst case, they end up with Skitish, a project who never quite pans out. Most likely, they take someone in the middle, a Steve Smith/Mike Miller-type player, and hope for the best.